The FipeZap Index for May 2026 placed Balneário Camboriú at R$ 15,215/m², second in the national ranking just behind Itapema [Source: FipeZap, May 2026]. The figure already stands out. But a study released by Sort Investimentos in March 2026 points to a more ambitious horizon: BC's square meter could double by 2030, reaching an average of R$ 30,000 and up to R$ 40,000 in specific points along the waterfront [Source: NSC Total, March 2026].
Evaluating that projection rigorously means understanding what supports it and what could prevent it.
The Track Record That Makes the Projection Plausible
Balneário Camboriú did not reach R$ 15,000/m² overnight. The trajectory has been one of consistent appreciation over a decade. In 2015, the average square meter in the city was around R$ 5,000. In ten years, it tripled.
The primary catalyst for this acceleration was the beach widening project, completed in 2023. The work transformed BC from a regional tourist destination into an international reference for premium waterfront real estate. With a doubled seafront and a reconfigured skyline, the city began competing directly with Miami and Dubai in the minds of high-net-worth buyers from Brazil and abroad.
FipeZap + historical estimates NSC Total
The service infrastructure kept pace. BC now concentrates the tallest residential buildings in Latin America, international-standard dining, global hotel chains, and a year-round cultural calendar that sustains demand outside the summer season.
The Three Drivers That Could Sustain a Doubling
The projection of doubling the square meter in four years assumes three already-active dynamics continue.
Arrival of luxury brands. The northern coast of Santa Catarina recently saw branded residences signed by brands including Armani, following the Tonino Lamborghini Residences in Chapecó [Source: NDMais, 2026]. Each new signature development that arrives in the region raises the reference floor of the local market. The logic mirrors what happened in Miami and Dubai: when a global brand chooses a destination, it signals to international markets that the address has liquidity, and that signal attracts more capital.
Supply restriction. Balneário Camboriú's master plan imposes limits on vertical growth in certain zones of the city [Source: NDMais, 2026]. Fewer plots available for premium new launches, combined with growing demand from buyers outside the state and internationally, creates a dynamic that historically pushes prices upward.
Buyer profile. BC now attracts a public that does not buy out of housing need but out of capital allocation. For this profile, the international liquidity of the property matters as much as the finishing standard. A unit in BC can be sold to buyers from São Paulo, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Argentina, and Uruguay, widening the demand base and sustaining prices even in tighter credit environments.
The Risks the Projection Does Not Account For
Any exercise projecting doubled prices in four years needs to be read with appropriate caveats.
The first risk is regional competition. Itapema took the national top spot in May 2026 at R$ 15,226/m², and the Meia Praia widening scheduled to begin in August could widen that gap. If Itapema consolidates its position as the reference destination on the Santa Catarina coast, part of the capital that would have gone to BC may shift to Itapema, moderating BC's appreciation pace.
The second risk is macroeconomic. The projection assumes a rate-cutting cycle and more accessible mortgage credit. The base scenario points to the Selic rate at 12.25% by the end of 2026 [Source: NegociosSC, 2025], but any reversal of that trajectory directly affects demand for premium properties.
The third risk is temporary supply saturation. BC already concentrates some of the most expensive developments in the country. An excessive number of simultaneous super-luxury launches could create a short-term supply overhang that briefly pressures prices downward before any eventual recovery.
What the Data Already Confirms
Whether the R$ 40,000/m² projection for 2030 materializes or not, the data already confirms that Balneário Camboriú operates under a pricing logic distinct from conventional real estate: demand is international, liquidity is high, and supply restriction is structural.
For anyone tracking Santa Catarina's real estate market, BC's trajectory matters as a reference point regardless of whether the most optimistic projection plays out. The second half of 2026 will test the limits of that logic, with Itapema's beach widening, new branded residence launches on the northern coast, and a credit environment in transition.
[Source: FipeZap, May 2026] [Source: NSC Total, March 2026] [Source: NDMais, 2026] [Source: NegociosSC, 2025]
